There is a joke circulating on Facebook today about a politician who dies and is told he must spend one day in hell. Surprisingly, when he gets there, it’s very appealing to the deceased lawmaker. Fine hotel, great golf, old friends and great weather all combine to make the politician seem welcome. The devil tells the visitor that he can, if he wishes, make his stay permanent and thus continue to enjoy these surroundings for eternity. He takes the devil up on the offer and wakes up the next morning in an environment similar to Dante’s inferno. When the politician complains to the devil, the old trickster explains, “Yesterday we were campaigning, but now you have voted.”
This idea that politicians do not try to live up to their promises is a popular one, maybe because it excuses us from the consequences of our votes. I believe there is a much better case that politicians try to do the big things that they said they would. LBJ, the War on Poverty, Reagan, the big tax cut and simultaneous defense build up, Clinton, welfare reform, George W, Bush, major change to Educational funding and a big tax cut, Obama, extension of health care coverage for most Americans.
I am not saying they do everything they say they will do, and in some cases they were not fully committed. The press in its modern day pose of reporting the news from Mount Olympus is leader of the cynics on this score and will ask dumbfounded why is Obama pushing so hard on health care reform without even a thought that he might feel some obligation to meeting his most important promise. Taking account of all human frailties, I argue that generally we ignore politician’s promises at our peril.
Now I understand this runs counter to our common orthodoxy. But in way of demonstration I would argue for example that the promises of many major Real Estate Developers are not as reliable as the promise of the average successful politician. Now my belief here is not premised on the idea that politicians are necessarily more honest, but on the fact that they see their transaction with the voters as an ongoing one, that tomorrow they will be doing business with the same people they are facing today. Sure you’ve got some maneuvering room, but you can’t leave them feeling like suckers. Trump’s career doing real estate on an international scale demonstrates that you can burn bridges if you have the chutzpah: leave the New York banks high and dry, no problem. Just market your name to international developers who bring their own money to the table. Trump to his credit or disgrace, has proven to be a businessman who can fly high enough so the cries of those left holding the bag are drowned out by the jet engines of his gold plated airplane.
Compare this to the average man or woman who gets to run for president. Generally he or she goes to voters several times. Each time there is an opponent trying to make the case that he has not kept his promises. The politician cannot leave these voters behind. He can run for a higher office but they will still be a part of his base ready to swear by or at his claims of trustworthiness.
Compare politician Obama with developer Trump. During Obama’s run for the presidency he promised to try and remove from law the provisions in Medicare D, enacted by Bush and his Republican allies in Congress, which prevent the government from negotiating with the drug companies for lower drug prices. Once elected, Obama found a price for passing Obama care was not tipping over the drug companies gravy train and he backed off on one promise to fulfill the larger one.
Eight years later, Trump is running as a Republican and he holds up this anti negotiation provision of the Medicare drug law as an example of how stupid or corrupt all the politicians are. Working men and women welcomed this non politician who would call out the Washington insiders who were making them pay much more for drugs than their counterparts in other countries. Here was Trump attacking the elite as strongly as Bernie Sanders. Trump was on their side.
Most Republican politicians would have never dared, break so sharply with the party they hoped to lead and with a very powerful interest group in their party. The fact that Trump did, made his promise all the more believable.
Trump is elected President and health care is the first big item on his legislative agenda. He must decide if it is time to fulfill his promise to repeal and replace Obama Care with something much better. At this point a strange thing happens. Trump just turns the whole thing over to Paul Ryan. Now this is amazing because Trump ran a primary campaign against the orthodoxy as preached by Paul Ryan. And the success of his campaign proved that even in the ranks of Republican primary voters there is very little support for the anti Social Security, anti Medicare, anti Medicaid, pro tax breaks for the rich Ryan Orthodoxy. Trump smashed through it like it was a paper wall.
As President, Trump had to work with Speaker Ryan and in the end he would have to make some concessions to that wing of the Congressional Republicans. However, we might also expect he would be thinking that his first big bill would have to have some meat for the new voters he attracted to the GOP banner. We might expected he would see this as a place to show us all what the art of the deal looks like. How might he have accomplished that? What does every negotiator look to expand, his leverage.
The move was to approach the Democrats while talking to the Republicans, because he had run some things like negotiating drug prices that many Democrats would be hard pressed to vote against. His people should have floated the word that negotiating drug prices and buy in for Medicare for seniors over 50 were still much on his mind. With this prospect hanging out there, It would not have been hard for Trump to arrive at a bill which was more closely in line with the promises of his campaign, than the monster bill Ryan strapped him with. With some of the Democrats in play, the power of the Freedom Caucus would be zero.
Here it is important to focus on the one real weapon Trump had which Obama did not. The Republican House leaders could deny Obama a vote on any major bill which would not pass the house with a majority of the Republican votes, but Ryan could never have denied President Trump a vote on his repeal plan even if it depended on some Democrats to pass.
Think how the dynamic would have changed if Trump had taken control of the content and pushed the policies he ran on. Why didn’t he? Some say he was afraid or unwilling to get into the details of health care.
This leaves many Republicans wondering how Reagan succeeded when he too had little interest in details. This brings me back to my original premise, the importance of a politician’s trustworthiness, particularly with his base. Reagan won the presidency by saying to GOP voters, party leaders needed to be more committed to Republican ideals. That was his big promise and it attracted able men and women who shared his belief. They trusted his commitment to their cause and came to trust his loyalty to them.
I do not think it is unfair to suggest this is not the current climate in Trumpland where everything is transactionable and a person who risks losing for an important cause is a loser.
This idea that politicians do not try to live up to their promises is a popular one, maybe because it excuses us from the consequences of our votes. I believe there is a much better case that politicians try to do the big things that they said they would. LBJ, the War on Poverty, Reagan, the big tax cut and simultaneous defense build up, Clinton, welfare reform, George W, Bush, major change to Educational funding and a big tax cut, Obama, extension of health care coverage for most Americans.
I am not saying they do everything they say they will do, and in some cases they were not fully committed. The press in its modern day pose of reporting the news from Mount Olympus is leader of the cynics on this score and will ask dumbfounded why is Obama pushing so hard on health care reform without even a thought that he might feel some obligation to meeting his most important promise. Taking account of all human frailties, I argue that generally we ignore politician’s promises at our peril.
Now I understand this runs counter to our common orthodoxy. But in way of demonstration I would argue for example that the promises of many major Real Estate Developers are not as reliable as the promise of the average successful politician. Now my belief here is not premised on the idea that politicians are necessarily more honest, but on the fact that they see their transaction with the voters as an ongoing one, that tomorrow they will be doing business with the same people they are facing today. Sure you’ve got some maneuvering room, but you can’t leave them feeling like suckers. Trump’s career doing real estate on an international scale demonstrates that you can burn bridges if you have the chutzpah: leave the New York banks high and dry, no problem. Just market your name to international developers who bring their own money to the table. Trump to his credit or disgrace, has proven to be a businessman who can fly high enough so the cries of those left holding the bag are drowned out by the jet engines of his gold plated airplane.
Compare this to the average man or woman who gets to run for president. Generally he or she goes to voters several times. Each time there is an opponent trying to make the case that he has not kept his promises. The politician cannot leave these voters behind. He can run for a higher office but they will still be a part of his base ready to swear by or at his claims of trustworthiness.
Compare politician Obama with developer Trump. During Obama’s run for the presidency he promised to try and remove from law the provisions in Medicare D, enacted by Bush and his Republican allies in Congress, which prevent the government from negotiating with the drug companies for lower drug prices. Once elected, Obama found a price for passing Obama care was not tipping over the drug companies gravy train and he backed off on one promise to fulfill the larger one.
Eight years later, Trump is running as a Republican and he holds up this anti negotiation provision of the Medicare drug law as an example of how stupid or corrupt all the politicians are. Working men and women welcomed this non politician who would call out the Washington insiders who were making them pay much more for drugs than their counterparts in other countries. Here was Trump attacking the elite as strongly as Bernie Sanders. Trump was on their side.
Most Republican politicians would have never dared, break so sharply with the party they hoped to lead and with a very powerful interest group in their party. The fact that Trump did, made his promise all the more believable.
Trump is elected President and health care is the first big item on his legislative agenda. He must decide if it is time to fulfill his promise to repeal and replace Obama Care with something much better. At this point a strange thing happens. Trump just turns the whole thing over to Paul Ryan. Now this is amazing because Trump ran a primary campaign against the orthodoxy as preached by Paul Ryan. And the success of his campaign proved that even in the ranks of Republican primary voters there is very little support for the anti Social Security, anti Medicare, anti Medicaid, pro tax breaks for the rich Ryan Orthodoxy. Trump smashed through it like it was a paper wall.
As President, Trump had to work with Speaker Ryan and in the end he would have to make some concessions to that wing of the Congressional Republicans. However, we might also expect he would be thinking that his first big bill would have to have some meat for the new voters he attracted to the GOP banner. We might expected he would see this as a place to show us all what the art of the deal looks like. How might he have accomplished that? What does every negotiator look to expand, his leverage.
The move was to approach the Democrats while talking to the Republicans, because he had run some things like negotiating drug prices that many Democrats would be hard pressed to vote against. His people should have floated the word that negotiating drug prices and buy in for Medicare for seniors over 50 were still much on his mind. With this prospect hanging out there, It would not have been hard for Trump to arrive at a bill which was more closely in line with the promises of his campaign, than the monster bill Ryan strapped him with. With some of the Democrats in play, the power of the Freedom Caucus would be zero.
Here it is important to focus on the one real weapon Trump had which Obama did not. The Republican House leaders could deny Obama a vote on any major bill which would not pass the house with a majority of the Republican votes, but Ryan could never have denied President Trump a vote on his repeal plan even if it depended on some Democrats to pass.
Think how the dynamic would have changed if Trump had taken control of the content and pushed the policies he ran on. Why didn’t he? Some say he was afraid or unwilling to get into the details of health care.
This leaves many Republicans wondering how Reagan succeeded when he too had little interest in details. This brings me back to my original premise, the importance of a politician’s trustworthiness, particularly with his base. Reagan won the presidency by saying to GOP voters, party leaders needed to be more committed to Republican ideals. That was his big promise and it attracted able men and women who shared his belief. They trusted his commitment to their cause and came to trust his loyalty to them.
I do not think it is unfair to suggest this is not the current climate in Trumpland where everything is transactionable and a person who risks losing for an important cause is a loser.